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Hope to see you there.

What came first: the crime, or the recession?

A recent nytimes article ascertains that crime is still going down, though resists overturning the conception that hard times lead to desperate measures.

But crime statistics and people’s feelings about public safety “are not perfectly correlated,” Professor Smith said.

“People have had this longtime misconception that crime came down in New York City because the economy improved, and I have been telling people that it is just the reverse — the economy improved after crime went down,” Professor Smith said. “Hotel occupancy went up after crime went down. Airport arrivals went up after crime went down. Employment went up after crime went down.”

Ah, the chicken or the egg question. Both Prof. Smith and the other expert cited have a vested interest in the policing methods of the NYPD (the former studies said methods, the latter is a police historian and retired cop from Chicago), so rather unsurprisingly, they chalk it up to the methods: CompStat (tracking crimes, basically. Who knew stats could help police?), and the broken windows theory (the slippery slope for crimes. First comes the graffiti, then the murders). Click the link for the criticisms of broken windows: NYC's drop in crime rate matched that of cities where there was no such effort underway, of zero tolerance for misdemeanors. However, this study does make an interesting point that cleaning up areas and improving the physical appearance of an area does quite a bit (and which ties back into one aspect of the broken windows theory: persecute the petty criminals who "degrade" the city, whether through graffitti or jumping subway turnstyles or squeeging the windshields of motorists).

And, seriously, "demographic changes" (aka gentrification, or white in-flight), and the subsiding of the crack epidemic were a little out of the hands of the NYPD...

The article has deeper issues: in the first part of the quote, the report cites a key distinction, then procedes to completely ignore it: actual crime versus the perception of crime. (As well as a historical distinction: the sources of income cited come mostly from tourists, i.e., non-residents.) Areas with broken windows seem more dangerous. Fix the windows, perhaps stop people from breaking more windows, and in the meantime, the area will be perceived as safer.

In general, people consider what they know to be safer than what they don't know; subway surveys report this year after year--people feel safer in familiar settings, on their own lines.

I would argue that New York may prove more resilient, because of a shift in residency patterns. Rather than fleeing cities, cities have become the place to live. So unless things get really bad, for a long time, then NYC will be okay.

The real question is subjective, for this depends on what people feel: how bad is too bad? and how long is too long?

(And wouldn't out-of-towners not be traveling anyway, because a vacation moves out of reach? These people would be more likely to consider the City to be more dangerous, since it's exotic and unfamiliar. So perhaps tourism would drop. But that doesn't mean terrible things, unless you love love LOVE Time Square right now.)

Twitter... 6?

From Slate's debate-o-matic, presenting the rhetoric for each side in an argument:

Oh, please, no more: At least with the hula hoop fad, someone was getting exercise. I prefer to talk to my real friends and have real experiences. Isn't this the complete fulfillment of Aldous Huxley's vision in Brave New World? We're amusing ourselves to death. One day we're going to wake up and every Twitter post will simply be, "Me, me, me, me." Outside will be a howling wilderness of shriveled civilization bereft of ideas and reason.

Relax. You're killing a fly with a shotgun. Nothing limited to 140 characters can do as much harm as you're suggesting. Plus, Shaq tweets!

P.S. of Word Nerdery

Because I can't help myself:

quis⋅ling

–noun

a person who betrays his or her own country by aiding an invading enemy, often serving later in a puppet government; fifth columnist.

---

Origin:
1940; after Vidkun Quisling (1887–1945), pro-Nazi Norwegian leader

Okay, first off, that is so weirdly specific. And how humiliating is that? He must feel like a Benedict Arnold... or a Judas? Oh wait, where were they in the thesaurus entry for collaborator? Nowhere to be found. Plus, how many people need a word to describe one who serves in a puppet government?

Buried beneath a number of articles on tips for jogging with your pet, I found the elusive running dog definition:

Running Dog is a literal translation into English of the Chinese/Communist insult 走狗 'Zou Gou', meaning lackey. Its first recorded use in English was in 1937.

Running Dog is also the title of a 1978 novel by Don DeLillo. At its center is a rumored pornographic film of Adolf Hitler, purportedly filmed in his bunker in the climactic days of Berlin's fall. The novel follows a journalist as she tries to penetrate a murky black market of wealthy erotic-art collectors in order to locate the film. The tale grows increasingly wild and violent as she closes in on this bizarre grail.

Umm... good?

Yisreal Beitenu/Isra'il La Beituna

Israel is certainly in a strange position right now (though it thankfully allows me to combine two recent topics: the Eurovision song contest and Israeli politics!)

The Israeli entry into said song contest has stirred some controversy: of course, you might say, a left-wing peacenik with an Arab collaborator, at a time when Israelis voted for right-wing parties and, during the recent invasion of Gaza, told peace protestors to stay home on this one.

More accurately though, the left is mad (though to be fair, the artist has had to cancel threats because of bomb threats from the extreme right, so confusion is warranted).

Chosen by Israel to represent the country at the Eurovision Song Contest — this year being held in Moscow in May with an expected television audience of 100 million — Ms. Nini asked if she could bring along her current artistic collaborator, an Israeli Arab singer, Mira Awad.

The selection committee liked the idea of having both Arab and Jewish citizens in the contest for the first time. But coinciding as it did with Israel’s Gaza war and the rise of Avigdor Lieberman the ultranationalist politician who threatens Israeli Arabs with a loyalty oath, the committee’s choice was labeled by many on the left and in the Arab community as an effort to prettify an ugly situation.

A petition went around demanding that the duo withdraw, saying they were giving the false impression of coexistence in Israel and trying to shield the nation from the criticism it deserved. It added, “Every brick in the wall of this phony image allows the Israeli Army to throw 10 more tons of explosives and more phosphorus bombs.”

Neither Ms. Nini, 39, nor Ms. Awad, 33, has been deterred. But since they consider themselves peace advocates, they are a bit surprised. The antiwar movement, they say, seems to have turned into a Hamas apology force. That, together with the political turn rightward in Israel, means that while the two are being sent to represent this mixed and complex society, they also feel a bit orphaned by it.

Not to detract from the seriousness of an issue, but permit an aside: slightly provocative to use the word "collaborator" in such a context?

A quick thesaurus search doesn't provide the WWII (dare I say it?) connotation of the word, as a traitor, unless you happen to know what a quisling is (and I suppose fellow traveller if you're Joseph McCarthy ... perhaps confederate if you're Abraham Lincoln):

assistant, associate, co-worker, colleague, confederate, fellow traveller, helper, partner, quisling, running dog, team player, teammate

Running dog? Anyway...

Both singers and their collaborator, Mr. Dor, say that they spend many hours arguing over the meaning of a Jewish democratic nation, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and how to do their part to make things better.

Ah, if only we all had the leisure time to do so. Just you and your running dogs.

Help our children

Or rather, help rename the act to help our children learn gooder!

Education Secretary Anne Duncan has proposed renaming the No Child Left Behind Act; thankfully eduwonk.com is soliciting the rabble for a new name.

A sampling:

Hey, Teacher, Leave Those Kids Alone Act
All American Children Are Above Average Act
Double Back Around to Pick Up the Children We Left Behind Act
the Rearranging the Deck Chairs Act

Most are in the vein of "the Teach to the Test Act," though less witty and just really cynical and pessimistic. It's pretty dispiriting to look at the national mood regarding education reform.

Perhaps it's just become infected by association with our dearly departed president.

Thankfully the Onion has just the allegory: a White House haunting (just as Kubrick would want it).

Sasha Obama Keeps Seeing Creepy Bush Twins While Riding Her Tricycle Through the White House

Sasha, who was playing in the East Wing of the executive mansion so as not to disturb her busy father, reported seeing the former first twins while riding her Big Wheel tricycle down the Cross Hall corridor. The frightening apparitions, the 7-year-old said, emerged out of thin air and were dressed in identical outfits consisting of spaghetti strap tank tops and denim skirts.

[...]

According to White House security documents, Sasha told Secret Service agents that the ghostly twins spoke to her in unison and repeatedly beckoned her by chanting the phrases "come play with us," "come play with us, forever," and "Daddy's making fajitas."

White House officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, also detailed a disturbing vision experienced by Sasha, who at several points during her encounter suddenly saw the twin girls lying motionless in a pool of spilled strawberry margaritas.

"She said they kept whispering 'we want to party' over and over again," said one Secret Service agent, who comforted Sasha following the incident. "God, it's so horrifying."

With her father often tied up with work for hours on end, this is not the first time Sasha has reported seeing malevolent spirits while exploring the 132-room mansion. Earlier this week, the 7-year-old was startled to find an angry, silver-haired woman named Barbara in the Map Room, and on Monday, the first daughter saw what appeared to be former attorney general John Ashcroft lying naked and unconscious in a bathroom tub.

AHHH!!